“Improved forecasting of spring flood volume and low-flow discharge in the Buktyrma River (Kazakhstan) using hydrometeorological and soil–water indicators.”
The article is the result of a fruitful collaboration with colleagues from Kazakhstan, involving researchers from Kazhydromet, Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, the Institute of Geography and Water Security, and the Universitat Politècnica de València.
The study focuses on the Buktyrma River, a mountain river in eastern Kazakhstan whose hydrological regime is strongly controlled by winter snow accumulation and spring–summer snowmelt. We developed improved statistical models to forecast both spring flood volumes and low-flow discharge by combining precipitation, temperature and flood-duration data with a new indicator representing changes in soil and groundwater storage.
The results contribute to more reliable flood and water-availability forecasting, particularly in mountain regions where monitoring data and long-term meteorological forecasts remain limited. The proposed methodology may also be adapted to other snowmelt-dominated basins in Kazakhstan and elsewhere in Central Asia.
Many thanks to all the co-authors for their excellent cooperation and commitment to this research.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s13201-026-02930-x
#WaterScience #Hydrology #Kazakhstan #FloodForecasting #WaterManagement #ScientificCooperation #UPV #IIAMA
The article reports improved regression-based forecasts through the integration of conventional hydrometeorological variables and a novel soil–water storage indicator, with potential application to other data-scarce, snowmelt-dominated basins.
The LESLIE project is implemented by an international consortium under financial support of the Erasmus+ Programme established by the European Education and Culture Executive Agency (EACEA). The consortium comprises The Regional Environmental Centre for Central Asia (CAREC) Universitat Politècnica de València (UPV), The University of Cassino and Southern Lazio (Unicas), University of Cyprus, Shokan Ualikhanov Kokshetau University (Ualikhanov University), Al-Farabi Kazakh National University (KazNU), Ahmet Yassawi University, Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Fergana Polytechnic Institute, The Tashkent Institute of Irrigation and Agricultural Mechanization Engineers (TIIAME), Bukhara Institute of Natural Resources Management (TIIAME NRU), Bukhara State University, International Agriculture University, Ministry of Higher Education, Science and Innovations of the Republic of Uzbekistan .