V.V. Grebnev, Environmental Expert
Regional Secretariat of the "One Health" Program in Central Asia,
Regional Environmental Centre for Central Asia
Over the past week, countries across Central Asia and the European Union have faced new waves of extreme heat. Record-breaking temperatures, rising mortality rates, wildfires, agricultural damage, and heat stress in livestock demonstrate that heatwaves must be viewed not merely as a meteorological phenomenon, but as a complex threat to human health, animal welfare, and ecosystem resilience.
From the perspective of the "One Health" approach, these consequences are intrinsically linked: overheating and dehydration elevate morbidity and mortality rates among the population, reduce the productivity and immune resilience of livestock, degrade pastures and water resources, and alter the geographic ranges and seasonal dynamics of vectors such as ticks and mosquitoes. Water and feed deficits can exacerbate the movement of wild and domestic animals, increasing the frequency of their contacts with humans and creating additional pathways for the spillover of zoonotic diseases. Consequently, responding effectively to heatwaves requires not isolated measures, but coordinated action across meteorological, healthcare, veterinary, agricultural, and environmental agencies, including joint risk monitoring, early warning systems, and data sharing.
Central Asia: Record Temperatures and Urban Heat Islands
On July 17, 2026, maximum air temperatures in Almaty reached +39.2°C, surpassing the previous daily record of +37.4°C set in 1945. The following day, July 18, temperatures climbed to +40.0°C—setting another record for that date by exceeding the previous high of +39.7°C recorded in 1997.
In Bishkek, from July 17 to July 19, 2026, new absolute daily temperature highs were recorded for three consecutive days: +41.6°C, +43.2°C, and +43.5°C, respectively. The reading on July 19 exceeded the city's previous absolute July record of +42.1°C, set in 2015. This extreme heat also triggered emergency power outages across Bishkek and several surrounding regions on July 17.
In Uzbekistan, temperatures across most regions reached +42°C to +45°C during the peak heatwave, while southern and desert districts saw temperatures of +46°C to +48°C. Authorities were forced to reduce metro train speeds, restrict heavy vehicle transport, temporarily close kindergartens, and heighten the readiness of emergency and rescue services.
At the same time, expert assessment emphasize that: "When discussing extreme heat, it is insufficient to rely solely on meteorological station data. People do not live at weather stations; they live amidst hot asphalt, heated building facades, and vehicles. Consequently, the ambient temperature experienced by urban residents can differ significantly from official figures."
This is confirmed by thermal imaging measurements conducted in Bishkek, which showed that actual heat exposure for people and animals in urban environments can be significantly higher than the measured air temperature:
- Ala-Too Square: Asphalt surface temperatures reached +65.2°C.
- CHP-2 (Combined Heat and Power Plant 2): Nearby surfaces reached nearly +70.0°C.
- Parked Vehicles: Cars left in direct sunlight registered surface temperatures near +80.0°C.
- Playgrounds: Metal structural elements on a playground reached +134.0°C.
Conversely, along the tree-lined Erkindik Boulevard, the surface temperature of wooden benches was around +33.0°C, and paving stones registered approximately +46.0°C. While these metrics represent surface rather than air temperatures, they clearly illustrate the critical role of urban canopy cover and shade in mitigating thermal stress.
Extreme Heat and Human Health
The most alarming data for June 2026 came from Europe. According to published analysis from the European Mortality Monitoring Project (EuroMOMO), during the June heatwave, European countries recorded more than 10,000 all-cause excess deaths above baseline levels. In the week ending June 28 alone, EuroMOMO estimated all-cause excess mortality at 14,260 cases, with more than 12,000 of the deceased aged 65 and older. Researchers emphasize that while not all of these fatalities can be definitively attributed directly to thermal stress, this sharp spike in mortality coincided with record-breaking temperatures and lacked any other obvious explanation. Furthermore, high nocturnal temperatures significantly amplify health risks, as the human body is unable to recover from daytime heat loads.
Extreme heat poses a severe threat to high-risk populations, including the elderly, young children, pregnant women, individuals with cardiovascular, respiratory, and renal conditions, and outdoor workers. In France, approximately 5,764 excess deaths were registered between June 17 and July 2—representing a 36% increase above expected baseline levels in affected departments. During the peak of the heatwave, emergency service calls and hospital admissions in certain regions surged by 15–20%, with individuals over the age of 75 accounting for nearly 60% of emergency hospitalizations. Meanwhile, a study conducted in Kyrgyzstan revealed that 79% of respondents aged 55 and older reported a noticeable deterioration in well-being during periods of hot weather.
Livestock and Domestic Animals
Animals suffer from overheating just as severely as humans, yet they cannot independently alter their living conditions. In Europe, the repercussions for the livestock sector were immediate and measurable. In France, the June heatwave led to the death of hundreds of thousands of poultry. While precise national tallies were still being finalized, carcass collection and disposal systems in major poultry-producing regions were pushed to capacity. On individual farms, daily mortality rates spiked from a baseline of one or two birds to hundreds within a matter of days.
Similarly, heat stress triggered a 15–20% decline in milk yields among dairy cattle, along with reduced feed intake. In July, the European Commission formally noted that ongoing heat exposure was inflicting severe stress on farm animals while simultaneously degrading crop conditions and working environments for farmers. Thermal stress negatively impacts water and feed consumption, milk and meat productivity, reproductive performance, and immune resilience against diseases.
The magnitude of future vulnerability is highlighted by a study on European livestock: by mid-century, between 6.2 and 13.7 million head of cattle (representing 11% to 21.6% of the herd in analyzed countries) could be exposed to at least 15 additional heatwave days annually. Furthermore, 70% to 92% of the European herd could face at least five additional extreme heat days. Animals kept in enclosed housing facilities without pasture access are particularly vulnerable.
In contrast, quantitative data on livestock mortality, reduced milk production, reproductive losses, or emergency slaughter resulting from the June heatwave remain virtually absent in the public domain across Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. For Central Asia, this data deficit is particularly critical, as a major share of livestock is raised on open pastures where access to water, shade, and veterinary oversight can be severely constrained.
Ecosystems, Wildfires, and Food Security
Elevated temperatures accelerate evapotranspiration in vegetation and soil, reduce water levels in rivers and reservoirs, and create ideal conditions for the ignition and spread of wildfires.
By July 21, the largest forest fire of the year in Spain's Guadalajara province had consumed over 26,000 hectares and forced the evacuation of more than 1,000 people. Temperatures in Spain exceeded +40°C, with localized forecasts reaching +42°C to +44°C. Wildfires were also recorded in natural regions of Scotland and along the Mediterranean coast of France.
In turn, an economic damage assessment published on July 22, 2026, indicated that the June heatwave could reduce grain production in the European Union and the UK by nearly 9 million tonnes, with crop value losses estimated at approximately €2 billion. Wheat, barley, and maize—which is especially sensitive to extreme temperatures during its pollination phase—were among the hardest hit.
For Central Asian ecosystems, prolonged heatwaves exert additional pressures on pastures, wetlands, mountain forests, and wildlife habitats. Depleting water sources can force wild animals closer to human settlements and livestock grazing areas, elevating the risk of human-wildlife conflicts and increasing contact rates between wild species, domestic animals, and humans.
A Comprehensive Response Required
Recent data confirm that heatwaves simultaneously impact public health, veterinary medicine, agriculture, water resource management, biodiversity, and fire safety. Under the "One Health" framework, nations must integrate meteorological warnings with epidemiological and veterinary surveillance data, ensure access to water and shade for populations and animals, restrict livestock transport during peak temperature hours, adjust outdoor work schedules, enhance wildfire and water body monitoring, and accelerate urban greening initiatives.
The assessment reveals a striking disparity between Europe and Central Asia—not so much in their degree of climate risk, but in the quality and systematic tracking of its impacts. While Europe maintains accessible data on excess mortality, hospitalizations, poultry mortality, and livestock productivity declines, Central Asia records hazardous temperatures without publishing systematic data regarding the impacts on human and animal health.
Under the "One Health" approach, it is critical to cross-integrate:
- Hydrometeorological service warnings
- Emergency medical calls, hospitalizations, and mortality data
- Livestock mortality, milk yield reductions, and reproductive disorders
- Tick and mosquito activity
- Human and animal incidence rates of vector-borne infections
- Pasture degradation and water point availability
Implementing this integrated monitoring will make it possible to distinguish baseline seasonal disease dynamics from the impacts of extreme heat, enabling timely, coordinated interventions by health, veterinary, and environmental services. Extreme heat is no longer merely a meteorological issue; it is a critical factor directly shaping human life expectancy, animal welfare, ecosystem stability, and food security.
Prepared under the regional project “One Health for Pandemic Prevention, Resilient Food Systems, and Ecosystem Health in Central Asia,” implemented by the Regional Environmental Centre for Central Asia with support from the World Bank.