How climate change affects rivers hydrology in Central Asia

Publication date: 28 June 2018

Increase in temperature will intensify melting of the Central Asian glaciers, and as the result, the seasonal runoff of rivers in the region will likely decrease in the long run. Climate change would also affect the hydrological cycle of the rivers by shifting the peak of the inter-annual runoff to early months. On the other hand, water flow in the summer months will decrease, which would have implications for agriculture. Therefore, we must be ready for this.

These are main conclusions from Dr Abror Gafurov, a researcher from the German Research Center for Geophysical Sciences - "The Impact of Climate Change on Hydrology in Central Asia." His presentation contains the results of a study on trends in summer temperatures in Central Asia, data on the degradation of glaciers from the 1970s, a comparative analysis of climate change scenarios in the Pamirs and Tien Shan, an assessment of the impact of climate on water resources in the basins of the Naryn, Karadarya and Zeravshan.


Climate Adaptation and Mitigation Program for Aral Sea Basin or CAMP4ASB is implemented by CAREC and financed by the World Bank. The project aims to enhance regionally coordinated access to improved climate change knowledge services for key stakeholders (e.g., policymakers, communities, and civil society) in participating Central Asian countries as well as to increased investments and capacity building that, combined, will address climate challenges common to these countries.CAMP4ASB is implemented in Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan during the period from 2016 to 2021.

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